India’s phenomenal growth and the possibility of the dismantling of global trade architecture were the twin themes discussed at the annual lecture that Peter Hall, Vice President and Chief Economist of Export Development Canada, gave to the members and stakeholders of the Indo-Canada Chamber of Commerce (ICCC) last week.

The lecture was held a couple of days after the US Presidential election and the surprising victory of Donald Trump. Peter Hall emphasized that while Trump has won on a seemingly anti-trade vote, it may be difficult and harmful to dismantle the global trade architecture that has evolved during the last three decades.

He said he wasn’t sure why the Americans are so angry. American economy is at a stage right now where it is going to expand exponentially. In that sense, Trump is lucky. The US economy has created 200,000 jobs each month for the last 73 months, and the unemployment rate is at 5%. This is actually an indication of good time as there is a rise in the real wages. Additionally, gasoline prices are lower, and after seven years the millennials are being brought in to the economy and they’re the people who will power up the economy.

Hall said we should all be worried with the anti-trade sentiment that is being expressed in America and Europe. If what is being threatened – such as 35% tariff on goods from Mexico and 45% tariff on goods from China – prices will skyrocket and when prices go up at Walmart, Americans will wilt.

Not only is it not easy to dismantle the global trade architecture that has evolved over the last three decades, but doing so will be disastrous. European economy is on the same path as the American economy was;it’s just that the European economy is reviving a bit late. The US and the European economies depend upon the global trade architecture. Hall added that it must be noted that there is a silent majority that has felt that it was left behind.

Turning to India, Hall said the EDC has been actively participating in the India growth story. India is a busy market for us. India is a fascinating economy with tremendous potential and is playing a superior role in the global economy. It offers returns at a much faster pace and with minimum risks. This is not the case with the global economy where the risks are quite high. The ascension of India over the last 20 years has been remarkable. Communication technology is enabling India to link with the global economy and is able to simply bridge the gap

Hall predicted that India will be able to maintain the rate of growth for a long time. At present its growth rate is faster than China, and it won’t slow down. It is the seventh largest economy at present – and this has to be seen in the context of a world that is seemingly at a standstill. India is developing like no other economy. The massive investments in infrastructure are transforming the Indian economy. The agri-food sector has been revolutionized because of the innovations in cold storage facilities, better logistics and transportation fleet, super highways.

Another emerging trend that will benefit India immensely is the demographic dividend which is going to give a further impetus to the economic growth. China has run out of people, and its wage bill is going up. There’s a huge inflow from China into India’s manufacturing sector. There are clear signs that India will become the China of the world economy. India is adding 20 million people to the middle class every month. China is adding 34 million (one Canada) to the middle class every month

This growth will fundamentally change consumption patterns. Food consumption in India is an opportunity for Canada because India is a net food importer. The financial community in Canada has already understood the opportunities in India and has already begun investing in the Indian economy –the Brook fields, the pension plans – they’re all going to India.